According to the Telegraph:
Over 1,000 people staged a rare anti-government rally in the semi-autonomous republic of Ingushetia, arguably the most volatile spot in the troubled region, after a prominent activist journalist was shot dead while in police custody at the weekend.
…
The escalation comes amid growing signs of local anger that while Russia has backed the right of self-determination for the Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Ingushetia, separatism in the Russian Caucasus has been brutally crushed.
The irony in this situation is down right schadenfreudelicious… Russia stomps a small neighbor ostensibly to allow a small “breakaway region” to gain its independence, while at the same time stomping some of it’s own “breakaway regions” that want their own independence. Sadly, prior to this latest bit of Putinesca, I was all in favor of Russia… for they were fighting Islamist fanatics and Al Queda wannabes, such as the Chechen monsters of Beslan, and having the Russians playing whack-a-mole with Jihadists is something I just can’t really complain about. But by invading and stomping Georgia (a nation that was *not* in violation of armistice treaties or even UN resolutions) in order to free annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia (regions which are *not* internationally recognized as being separate from Georgia), they have thrown away whatever claims they’ve got against their own breakaway regions. Worse, this will lead to a ratchetting up of Russian militarism, which must be countered by the West ane especially formerly Soviet Eastern European nations, which will be countered by the impressively paranoid Russians, which will be countered by the West, which… and on and on.
2 Responses to “Russia faces new Caucasus uprising in Ingushetia”
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Scott,
Russia is screwed. Screwed by a lot of things going on at once.
Demographically, Russia is crashing and burning. The average life expectancy in Russia is declining, has been for years, and is now worse than it was back in the 30’s at the height of Stalin’s purges. More and more of Russia’s young are getting the hell out that sh$thole and heading out to anywhere but Rodina – Europe and Brighton Beach / LA, mostly.
Disease in Russia is on the increase, alcoholism to. Combine that with the decay of Russia’s healthcare systems and things are only gonna get worse as far as their population goes on that aspect as well.
Russia is making lots and lots of money due to the price of oil. That’s making for a lot of freshly minted Russian billionaires. But you’ll note a commensurate lack of growth in the rest of the Russian economy. You’d see such growth were all that oil money being spent in Russia. Instead, those new Russian billionaires are stashing as much of their new billions in accounts outside of Russia. Accounts that Putin and his FSB chums can’t touch. Accounts which, in turn, invest in projects with better guarantee of return – i.e. in the West and the US – _NOT_ in Russia.
So, the disintegration of Russia’s economy and infrastructure is continuing unabated. The oil money alone might not be able to turn that all around but it could help. Instead, it’s flowing out of Russia and helping our economy. As Russia’s economy and infrastructure continues to collapse, that’ll spur more of its “best and brightest” to bail in search of better futures. As Putin and his kleptocrats keep taking their piece of the action that’ll spur more “white flight” (White Russian, in this case) as well. So, the downward spiral continues.
In about twenty or thirty years or so, Russia is gonna be facing a newly desperate China as it seeks to solve its demographic collapse problems as well. At that point though, I don’t think Russia is going to have anyone left to turn to for help bailing.
Even now, Russia’s economy isn’t strong enough to sustain another Cold War against the West. From what I’ve read, Putin is actually spending _less_ on Russia’s military than Yelstin did. So, aside from some high profile photo-op units, Russia’s military is even less capable now than it was back during the 90’s. And that’s only going to get worse as well.
Putin could fix this by opening Russia to the West and truly reforming its economy. But doing so would end his career and the political futures of all his FSB cronies and the old Soviet establishment. And doing so would deeply wound – if not kill – Russia’s national pride. So, Vlad is trying to fix things “old school.”
He’s consolidating power at home and doing so in the hopes that this greater control will enable him to “do what must be done.” Firing up the flames of Russian nationalism, playing to Russian xenophobia, and keeping Russia’s neighbors terrified are thus necessary steps, in his view, in order to implement those reforms.
What I think this is more likely to do is leave Russia impoverished, alienated, isolated, and locked down in a violently autocratic system that eliminates any chance of those reforms from ever taking place.
That being the case, I think we must needs write-off any chance of Russia being our ally and do what we can to preserve the democratic nations that are left around Russia. Doing so will indeed give Putin the excuse to further flame those nationalist fires. But since he’s gonna do that any way, we might as well do what’s best for us.
Madoc
“Russia is screwed. ”
Maybe, maybe not. Russia would of course be better as a thriving ally than a dying enemy. We dodged a fricken bullet the last time they went down; I remain amazed that the fall of the USSR didn’t end with warlords (former Soviet military generals) flinging nukes and biobombs. If the next time the Russians go down they plaster the middle east, that might not be so bad… but I suspect we’ll be lucky if that’s all that happens.
Most nations and their people constantly change. The British of today are not those who conquered every square inch of the world that they could and imposed civilization. The Germans aren’t the domineering conquerers of years past, nor the backwards rustics of many decades earlier. Americans aren’t the confident entepreneurs and individualists we were in times past. But Russia -its leadership, at any rate – seems to remain the domineering pack of paranoids that they’ve been for centuries.