Oct 312018
 

Disney bought Lucasfilm six years ago today and has already recouped its $4 billion investment

Ummm…

The deal, worth $4.05 billion in cash and stock, was announced Oct. 30, 2012 and marked the start of a new era in the Star Wars franchise. Disney would make back that investment and more in just a few short years. The four Star Wars feature films Disney has produced have grossed more than $4.8 billion at the box office, according to comScore.

UMMMM…

Someone needs a refresher course in the difference between “gross” and “net.” The general rule of thumb is that the movie company gets 50% of the tcket sales in the US, and 25% from the foreign box office take. So how much did Disney make?

(YAY! I get to do some math!)

From the graphic included in the article, box office receipts for the four movies are:

Force Awakens: $936,662,225 domestic (which works out to ~$468 million); $1,132,798,477 overseas ($283 M)

Rogue One: $532,177,324 US ($266M); $524,290,640 foreign ($131 M)

Last Jedi: $620,180,528 US ($310 M); $712,330,249 foreign ($178 M)

Solo: $213,765,308 US ($106 M); $179,094,450 foreign ($44 M)

Thus Disneys total take so far is *about* $1.786 billion, not $4.8 billion. Worse, these movies weren’t exactly free to make. TFA cost about $300 million. Rogue One cost about $265 million, TLJ about $317 million, Solo, $300 million. The total just to make the movies: $1.182 billion. And while marketing costs are usually not spelled out, they’re generally assumed to run about the same as the production budget. But Solo didn’t seem to be that well marketed, especially compared to the extreme cost. So, let’s say the total marketing budget for the movies has been about $1 billion. Thus the total cost to Disney to make and market the movies has been about $2.182 billion… with $1.786 billion in box office take. Which would mean that, so far, Disney has *lost* about $400 million on the star Wars franchise, rather than making their four billion dollar investment back.

Admittedly, Disney is doubtless making a whole lot of money from merchandising, as well as DVD/Blu ray sales. I’m pretty sure that Disney is, in fact, turning something of a profit. But they sure seem to *not* be doing as well as this truly bizarre article is suggesting.

 Posted by at 11:36 pm
Oct 312018
 

Get ready for a rambling incoherent rant.

It’s Halloween, so of course media and news outlets are doing stories based around traditional Halloween cliches. One of those is “witches.” This morning I heard part of an NPR interview that blew through the better part of an hour discussing modern witchcraft with people (all women) who seem to think that there is something to it. Coupled with recent reports that the number of self-professed witches in the US has exploded in recent years, this disturbs me some.

Now, I couldn’t care less about peoples religion most of the time. As Heinlein pointed out, one mans theology is another mans belly laugh, and at a certain level witchcraft in no sillier, theologically, than Catholicism or Judaism or Raelism or any other -ism that actually posits the existence of the supernatural. But in actual practice, witchcraft – of which there are of course many divergent forms – is a belief system that not only puts its faith in the supernatural, but believes that it can actually *use* the supernatural to do Real World Stuff.

No. I’m sorry, not sorry, but no. Your hexes and potions and chants and invocations? If you think that you’re actually accomplishing anything real… you’re just plain-ass wrong. Now if that stuff makes you feel better? Fine, I guess. So long as you understand it’s hogwash and you’re doing it essentially for entertainment value, then it’s no worse of a  way to spend your time than, say, watching anime. But the belief that “magic is real” sets my teeth on edge.

Why? Because… it doesn’t work. Thousands of years wasted by millions, probably billions of practitioners, and not so much as a levitating frog. Sure, every now and then practitioners of the magical arts stumble across something useful: Chinese alchemists tried to come up with an elixir of life and whipped up black powder instead. So… hurray. But they didn’t really know what they were doing, and what they came up with had nothing to do with what they wanted.

What I’m seeing a lot of these days is what you might call “political witchcraft.” People who don’t like the way the world or the country is these days and, rather than campaigning for political solutions they *do* like, they’re resorting to witchcraft. Sometimes the results are weird to the point of being downright hilarious, such as this… person. Sometimes the results are bizarre to the point of being virtually inexplicable. But however they’re doing it, they’re wasting their time. Like a white supremacist shooting up a synagogue, anyone who goes public with patently absurd witchy nonsense is going to turn off people who might have agreed with them. I’m sure, for example, that for any political position a witch might take, there are more than a  few conventionally religious people who agree with that position. But the moment that witch starts casting spells, the conventionally religious person is probably going to head for the hills. Witchcraft, after all, is often something that your bigger religions have the death penalty for.

Magic, as in practices that successfully tap into the supernatural to do stuff, is hogwash. But more broadly, magic *does* kinda exist, in several forms. There’s the kind of trickery that Penn & Teller can do; there’s nothing supernatural about it, but most people would be hard pressed to come up with a  better explanation. Vaguely related is another kind of magic… equally non-supernatural, but perhaps far more powerful: the magic of what intelligent and imaginative humans can do. If you come from a culture that has no form of writing, someone producing even a crude form of data recording by pressing shapes into clay or carving runes on sticks is giving you a form of magic far more powerful than anything dreamed up by a shaman under the influence of toad sweat and mushrooms. The ability to count and do simple math? Magic. The calculation of time, the length of the year, predicting the seasons and the phases of the moon? Magic. The first time someone drew a sketch of a real thing on a cave wall or a flat rock and someone else recognized what it was? Magic. Even “meme magic,” where people make simple jokes and wind up controlling the direction of the political discourse. Those sorts of magic should be celebrated. As should the magic of technology… the “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” sort of technology. A simple transistor walkie talkie from the 1970s would have been explainable only in terms of magic to someone from 1700. A warp drive brought back with a time machine from the 26th century would seem magical today.

But there’s an important difference between “techno-magic” and “supernatural magic.” Let’s say you have a technomage straight out of Babylon 5, and a wizard straight out of the Potterverse. Their skills are, let’s say, roughly identical. They can do much the same sort of “magic.” What’s the difference? Why would I encourage the technomage to lay a smackdown on the Potterwizard, standing by with a  shotgun and an orbiting AC-130 in order to finish the job? Why is “magic-magic” offensive? Because it’s a cheat. And because it is, at it’s heart, *ignorant,* limiting and self destructive.

Look at the major forms of wizarding  and witchcraft in the modern world. You’ve got your Potterverse wizards. You’ve got your Jedi. You’ve got your X-Men mutants and other superpowered characters. And you have your real-world “witches.” What do all their forms of magic have in common? You learn from a book of wisdom. You learn what to do to make what happen. What do you *not* do? Well, you don’t innovate. What spells there are, are what there are. And… you don’t spend too much time trying to figure out how the magic works. Why it works. What the mechanism is that makes it work. It’s enough that it does work. To hell with “research.”

But a technomage – even if that technomage is Just Some Guy who got an electrical engineering degree and who makes ham radios in his basement as a hobby – would know *how* his magic works. What the underlying principles are. In order to become an engineer, a scientist, a technician… a person needs to know a lot of stuff beyond just the rote mechanics including the virtually complete history of their field. The magic of science and technology is not a cheat. It’s hard work, hard won, by not only the person in question but the many generations who came before. Name any magic-seeming technology and you can trace it back to it’s first glimmerings.

And anyone can become acquainted with the magic of science. You don’t need to be some special child of destiny, or have the right parentage, or a high enough midichlorian count or special genetic mutations. You just need to be non-stupid and have the discipline to put in the work and be ready to learn and understand.

But people want the fast and easy route, and they think that magic will do it for them. That if they do the right rituals, mutter the right words, believe the right things, the world will warp and flow around them into a shape they are happier with. But they’re fooling themselves. And their numbers seem to be growing.

 Posted by at 6:02 pm
Oct 312018
 

Yes, this cat seems like it is (probably “was,” video’s from a decade ago) something of a nightmare. But I just gotta respect the heck out of a small little animal that has that much fight in it when giant monsters come up on it and start stabbing it. Defiance: the greatest expression of freedom known.

Some people don’t like cats because, unlike dogs, they don’t do what the people think they are supposed to. The cats instead do what the *cat* thinks it aught to. Sometimes it results in awesomeness. But it’s always gratifying to see feline defiance in the face of threats or idiocy.

And of course, the ultimate expression of feline awesomeness via jerky behavior:

THAT. IS. AWESOME.

 Posted by at 1:01 am
Oct 302018
 

Huge Floating Dry Dock Holding Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier Has Accidentally Sunk

Whoopsie. The aircraft carrier itself didn’t sink, but it was damaged by a falling crane and may have been partially flooded. it was undergoing long-delayed repairs and upgrades.

The shipyard may wish to check to see if they’ve recently had anyone transferred in who used to work on drilling holes into Soyuz capsules…

 Posted by at 8:07 pm
Oct 302018
 

Parker Solar Probe Becomes Fastest-Ever Spacecraft

At about 10:54 p.m. EDT, Parker Solar Probe surpassed 153,454 miles per hour relative to the sun

Of course, it’s going downhill, so that makes it easier. And as it’s still approaching the sun, it will continue to accelerate. At perihelion in 2024 (it will reach perihelion for the first time this coming November 6, and do so again April 4, but it will also do a number of passes by Venus which will gradually shrink its orbit and drop its perihelion), it’ll be zipping along at about 430,000 mph. That’s about 1/1560 the speed of light. If it could keep that speed – and it can’t – it could get to Alpha Centauri in a mere 6700 years. If it was heading towards Alpha Centauri, which it won’t be.

Compratively, the New horizons probe to Pluto achieved it’s top speed relative to Earth just after launch… 36,373 mph. But it, of course, was going uphill.

 Posted by at 3:40 pm
Oct 302018
 

This…well, there here is Teh Dum.

St. Louis daycare ‘fight club’ caught on camera


Ladies and gentlemen… the teachers of today, giving us the leaders of tomorrow.

Protip: avoid the bejeezus out of St. Louis.

Of all the things the teachers could have done to keep the kids occupied, they thought physical combat was the best idea.

 Posted by at 3:23 pm
Oct 302018
 

The Peter Jackson documentary about World War One has found a distributor: Warner Brothers. This means chances are good not only of a proper Blu Ray release, but also potentially a wide theatrical release.

Warner Bros Acquires Peter Jackson’s WWI Documentary ‘They Shall Not Grow Old’ After BFI London Film Fest Premiere

Should we set up a betting pool about what sort of protests the movie gets? “It over-emphasizes white men!” “Where is the trans representation?” “It doesn’t say enough about how evil Nazis are!”
 Posted by at 11:15 am
Oct 302018
 

Ummm…

Trump eyeing executive order to end birthright citizenship, a move most legal experts say runs afoul of the Constitution

On the one hand, it certainly makes sense to get rid of the idea that if you are here in the US illegally you can have a baby, the baby is automatically a US citizen, and now you cannot be deported. On the other hand, that’s pretty much the way the Constitution is written. Birthright citizenship in the US is based on the 14th Amendment, which says:

Section 1. All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

The first bit of that, “All persons born or naturalized in the United States,” would include babies born to illegal aliens. Where it gets squirrely is the second bit: ” and subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” Some argue that this excludes illegals. But does it? I’m pretty sure that is an illegal alien breaks *any* law in the state of, say, Nebraska, they are subject to the jurisdiction of Nebraska. I think maybe the only people who might not be would be foreign diplomats, which is probably the point of the clause, as you don’t want ambassadors children being citizens of your own country.

If the Amendment is what I think it is, an executive Order won’t change it. And it *shouldn’t* change it, because then the next President, someone with different politics than Trump, could sign an Executive Order that re-writes the way the government understands any of the other Amendments. Pretty soon you’ll wake up with a religious test and British troops quartered in your apartment.

Birthright citizenship for illegals clearly needs to go away. But the way to do that is with a Constitutional amendment, not an Executive Order. If nothing else the Supreme Court will simply smack it down. In the mean time, the issue can be dealt with in a legal and fully Constitutional fashion: rapid and efficient deportations of illegal aliens.

Wikipedia has an interesting list of what nation does what when it comes to birthright citizenship (i.e. “Jus soli” in legal parlance). There is “unrestricted Jus soli,” which the US is *not* alone in (we are in a long list of mostly Latin American and third-world nations such as Pakistan and Venezuela); there is “restricted Jus soli” (which includes all of the EU nations, and puts requirements such as one of the parents needs to be a citizen, or the parents need to be in the national legally); and there is “no Jus soli for you,” which is everybody else.

 Posted by at 10:57 am