Consider: Russias invasion of Ukraine has not gone well. They’ve lost a *lot* of troops and equipment; it has become apparent that the Russian military seems to have some serious problems with maintenance and logistics. Ukraine has shown that a lot of Russias perceived power doesn’t seem to exist, or exists in the form of rickety junk.
Putin invaded in order to rebuilt the Russian Empire. But as Russia pours it’s apparently unpectacular and limited military equipment into the black hole that is Ukraine, could some of the other regions and states that Russia has bullied decide that Now’s The Time? If Russia ends up drawing troops away from Chechnya and Georgia and the like, could *they* rise up to throw out the Russians? Could China change its plans from “let’s take Taiwan” to “let’s take Siberia?”
Is it conceivable that this could end up being one of the more spectacular self-owns in history… a project to expand an empire ends up ending the empire?