Feb 072012
 

When Newt Gingrich suggested that an American moon base could be established by 2021, I expected that the lefties in the press would point and laugh. And they have done so, right on cue. What I’ve found disturbing, though, is that the mere *mention* on an American moon base causes the audience to erupt in laughter. Fifty years ago, when our technological and scientific base was much poorer than it is today, an equivalent suggestion was met with applause and hundreds of thousands of people rolling up their sleeves. Today, that suggestion is met with derision and apathy.

The future belongs to the bold. Apparently, a substantial fraction of the American public has rejected even the basic notion of being bold.

We’re doomed.

[youtube s1yIrLVe2JM]

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 Posted by at 3:11 pm
Dec 212011
 

More than two years ago I posted the first of what was supposed to be a multi-part series on on how to use engineering to make Utah a very different place. Part two took a while to come together. I had maps, geological data, lots of calculations and even CAD models… all of which got lost in a computer crash.

Gah.

To sum up part one: the Great Salt Lake is a great big stinky *nothing* in economic terms. It’s too shallow for boating, too salty for anything living except brine shrimp and bacteria. Just about the only use for it is salt recovery.

So my idea, which I’ll here present as “art” rather than “engineering” (due to the lack of math), is to turn the dead Great Salt Lake into a living inland sea.

Stage one would require getting rid of the Lake as it currently exists. To do this, it would have to be largely pumped out. This is not the problem it might seem. In the 1980’s, rains were more common… common enough that the lake was growing, and parts of Salt Lake City were under water. To deal with this, a series of high capacity pumps were installed. The three West Desert pumps have the capacity to send 1.5 million gallons per minute from the lake out into the desert, where it can then evaporate. The water volume of the lake is about 19 cubic kilometers (5,019,268,994,840 gallons). The existing pumps could move this volume of water in  about 6.4 years.

The time required to pump out the lake would be reduced further by the simple expedient of diverting the rivers that feed it. Evaporation alone would go far towards lowering water levels in a hurry. However, in this case, it’s important to let the rivers keep running into the lake.

My suggestion would be to increase the pumping capacity as much as possible… and to use very rugged pumps. Because in my plan, they’d be pumping substantially more than  just salt water. Instead, they’d pump mud.

As the project gets underway, bulldozers, excavators and other earth moving equipment would begin scraping up the muck that forms the bottom of the lake and moving it to the pumps. The pumps would suck up the sludge and send it out into the western desert. The current West Desert pumps send water only a short distance, to the Newfoundland Evaporation Basin. I would send the sludge further… perhaps to Dugway proving ground, perhaps further west (the desert near Nevada would seem an obvious place). In any event, during summer, the sludge would quickly dry out.

One of the bits of data I lost was just how deep the sludge goes before it hits bedrock. I’ve looked for it again, but damned if I can find it. So… assume we want to new lake to average a depth of 33 meters/100 feet. With a surface area of around 4400 square kilometers, this is a total volume of water, sludge and rock to be removed of 145,200,000,000 cubic meters. Relying purely on the exiting pumps, capable of moving 1.5 million gallons (5678 cubic meters) per minute, getting rid of this volume would take 48 years. This is excessive. To deal with this, I’d increase the scale of the pumping operation by a factor of ten, allowing the lake – the water, the sludge and a good chunk of the bedrock – to be moved out into the desert in little more than one Presidential administration.

At the end of that time, what do we have? A giant gaping hole in the ground.  Water flows into the hole through three main rivers, the Bear, Jordan and Weber. Flow rates average 68 cubic meters/second, 15 cubic meters/second and 10 cubic meters/second, respectively, for a total of 93 cubic meters per second. To refill the lake using just the river water would take something like 18,000 years (not counting losses due to evaporation). Even thinking long term, this is nuts. What to do??

Well… once the lake is emptied out, there is that giant bank of pumps, just sitting there looking stupid and useless. The solution: move the pumps. While a detailed engineering study would be needed to work out the best locations, my preliminary suggestion would be to move them to San Francisco bay, near Vallejo, California. Build  a salt water pipeline from the bay to the lake, a distance of about 710 miles. Use the pumps – along with, admittedly, a great many more – to pump ocean water up over the Sierras, past Reno, past Winnemucca and Elko, past West Wendover and into the new and improved Great Salt Lake. If you maintain the same flow in as you originally had flow out… you can refill the lake with ocean water in less than seven years.

At that point, you wind up with a sizable inland sea, filled with ocean water, ready to be stocked with ocean life. Stock it with species that are currently being fished to extinction. Stock it with species that’ll bring sport fisherman. Stock it with dolphins and small whales.

Over time, the “ocean” water quality will decline. Due to remnant salt from the bottom and the inflow of river water and human pollutants, it’s probable that the water will get nasty if the local ecosystem cannot filter it out and make use of the pollutants. So, probably every few decades the West Desert pumps will need to fire up and either run the water through a filtration/desalination system… or just out into the desert to evaporate. The pipeline from the ocean can be used to top off the lake.

Of course, at the end of this you still have a giant pipeline from the Pacific to the Great Salt Lake. Most of the time this pipeline would not need to add much to the Great Salt Lake, apart from a relative trickle to account for evaporation (somewhere on the order of a hundred cubic meters/second). But why let it sit otherwise unused? Several ideas immediately present themselves.

Anyone who has driven I-80 from Salt Lake to San Fran knows that most of Nevada is *boring.* Well, once the Great Salt Lake project has proven itself… why not do it again? New sizable ocean water lakes across norther Nevada could have substantial appeal. Nevada casinos that are basically oceanside could make a *vast* amount of money.

Additionally: just spray water out into the desert. Let it evaporate. It will leave a layer of salt, of course; this salt will need to be deposited somewhere where it will do no harm, or where it can be economically harvested. The water that evaporates away? It will help to form clouds and rain. Properly directed, this can aid in times of drought, or change larger climate patterns.

What would all this cost? Well… let’s just  say “a lot.” For starters, the power required to run the ocean water pumps – and there would have to be a lot of them, to move a vast volume of water over a series of mountains and through deserts, to a target more than 4,000 feet above sea level – would be at least 125 megawatts (according to the calculator HERE). To be conservative, though, assume that at least one gigawatt would be needed. Where in the hell is all that power going to come from?

The obvious answer: a few nuclear power plants. One 500 megawatt plant in San Francisco bay; one 250 megawatt plant near Reno; one 250 megawatt plant near or in the Great Salt Lake would seem to do the job. Cooling water, of course, would not be a problem.

Additionally, the pipeline itself would provide the basis for a fair amount of power. Assuming it’s 710 miles/ 1140 km long and ten meters in diameter (that’s a handwavy guess), the cross-sectional area  as seen from above is 11,400,000 square meters.  Cover that with solar cells.  Assume the cells have an efficiency of 20%, and due to the day/night cycle they receive an average of 500 watts per square meter, the total electrical power generated would be 1.14 gigawatts… enough to run the system.

Once the lake is full, all that electrical power would be available for other uses.

Still, the startup costs for a project like this would be vast, as would be the manpower requirements. While I’m pretty much an anti-hugenormous government sorta guy, this sort of project is pretty much possible only as a hugenormous government project. Something like the FDR-era Works Projects Agency would be needed. While a project like this, if successful, would pay for itself over time, the startup costs would be vast. How to pay for something that would probably cost hundreds of billions of dollars per year?

Hmmm.

Well, let me think. The FedGuv currently spends more than a *trillion* dollars per year on various forms of welfare. And we have a vast number of unemployed people, many of whom are drawing unemployment income and other welfare payments while *not* working. A clear part of the solution: link welfare payments to work on the Great Salt Lake project. In other words… get rid of welfare as such, and replace it with actual employment. This project, as I’ve laid it out here, would take at least a decade and a half, and realistically probably at least twenty or thirty years. That’s an entire career’s worth of job security for someone who might otherwise draw welfare instead… all while *not* adding to the deficit or putting other businesses out of business due to government competition (no private companies, so far as I’m aware, are planning on massive oceanwater pipelines from the Pacific to Utah). It would provide a kickstart to the decaying American steel industry due to the need for pipeline and pumps; for the nuclear and solar power industries; for tourism in California, Nevada and Utah; for farming in Nevada and points downwind; for the fishing industry, for the ability to fish inland rather than out at sea; for environmentalists, who get to see endangered ocean life installed inland, reducing the pressure to fish them at sea; and for the vast army of people who get paid to *work* rather than get paid to *not* *work,* thus instilling a work ethic into ’em.

Further down the line, the pipeline could be continued east into the midwest. Use the vast electrical power from the pipeline PV arrays to run desalination systems; use the desalinated water directly for irrigation or driving water, or let it filter down to aquifers that are currently being drained. In times of drought, let it evaporate into clouds, or refill rivers and reservoirs.

 Posted by at 11:34 am
Dec 122011
 

Especially if you are a sci-fi writer:

List of Known Trans-Neptunian Objects

(and other outer solar system objects)

A list of asteroids, planetoids, Kuiper Belt Objects and such floating around past Neptune. Includes basic orbital elements, brightness, diameter and any known moons that they may have.

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List Of Transneptunian Objects

Similar to previous.

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Current Impact Risks

Keep tabs on the rocks out there that will KILL US ALL.

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JPL Orbit Diagrams

Related to the Impact Risks page, this provides Java-based 3-D orbit diagrams of asteroids and planets. Zoom in and out, rotate around, animate them forward and backwards in time, watch how DOOM WILL COME AND SMACK EARTH UPSIDE THE HEAD.

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Atomic Rockets

If you want to write science fiction involving spacecraft, spaceflight or space battles, and you want it to be scientifically plausible, and you don’t have a relevant college degree… you’d be an unforgivable chump if you don’t pay a whole lot of attention to this website.

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Extra-Solar Planets Catalog

There are more of them than you might think… 708 as I write this. Cataloglists planets based on discovery means… direct imaging, microlensing, astrometry, etc.

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Earth Impact Effects Program

Enter the basic data of the DOOM-BRINGING rock or comet, and find out just how big of a hole it’s going to make in the Earth, and just how big that blast is going to be.

—————

Did I miss any? Yes. yes, I did. Feel free to add relevant links to the comments.  I will add more to this listing as they occur to me (or commented links that I think are especially good).

 Posted by at 9:50 am
Sep 222011
 

Read the paper for yourself:

Measurement of the neutrino velocity with the OPERA detector in the CNGS beam

The OPERA neutrino experiment at the underground Gran Sasso Laboratory has measured the velocity of neutrinos from the CERN CNGS beam over a baseline of about 730 km with much higher accuracy than previous studies conducted with accelerator neutrinos. The measurement is based on high-statistics data taken by OPERA in the years 2009, 2010 and 2011. Dedicated upgrades of the CNGS timing system and of the OPERA detector, as well as a high precision geodesy campaign for the measurement of the neutrino baseline, allowed reaching comparable systematic and statistical accuracies. An early arrival time of CNGS muon neutrinos with respect to the one computed assuming the speed of light in vacuum of (60.7 \pm 6.9 (stat.) \pm 7.4 (sys.)) ns was measured. This anomaly corresponds to a relative difference of the muon neutrino velocity with respect to the speed of light (v-c)/c = (2.48 \pm 0.28 (stat.) \pm 0.30 (sys.)) \times 10-5.

The summary:


The results of the study indicate for CNGS muon neutrinos with an average energy of 17
GeV an early neutrino arrival time with respect to the one computed by assuming the speed of
light in vacuum:
δt = (60.7 ± 6.9 (stat.) ± 7.4 (sys.)) ns.
The corresponding relative difference of the muon neutrino velocity and the speed of light
is:
(v-c)/c = δt /(TOF’c – δt) = (2.48 ± 0.28 (stat.) ± 0.30 (sys.)) ×10-5.
with an overall significance of 6.0 σ.

 Posted by at 10:19 pm
Aug 042011
 

Designed in the early 1990’s at Lawrence Livermore National Labs by Jordin Kare, the “Mockingbird” was a conceptual design of a single stage rocket vehicle. It was to be relatively cheap, as befits a vehicle designed officially to serve as a target. Replicating the trajectory of ballistic missiles, it was to serve as the target for ballistic missile defense systems.

But it was found that, if design properly, the simple target vehicle could do some rather more interesting things than simply get blasted. With a very lightweight aluminum rocket engine burning a combination of hydrogen peroxide and JP-5, performance in terms of thrust and Isp would be fairly high, and bulk vehicle density would also be quite high. It would, in fact, be just barely possible that this modest target vehicle would be able to attain low Earth orbit with a payload of 10 kilograms… hence the nickname “bricklifter.” Empty weight would be 75 kilograms; light enough to be picked up be two men.Gross weight would be 1500 kilograms; light enough to be carried by a largish pickup truck. And small enough that it could potentially be launche from the back of a smallish pickup truck.

Included in that 75 kilograms was re-entry shielding to allow the Mockingbird to survive re-entry, landing gear and enough rocket propellant for a soft touchdown. It was, essentially, a minimum-size Delta Clipper.

Like just about everything in aerospace, it likely would have come in over budget and over weight. But as the likes of Xcor, Armadillo Aerospace and Masten Space Systems have shown, relatively small groups on shoestring budgets (by government standards) can, with time and effort, develop just the sort of technologies needed to make vehicles like the Mockingbird work. And if one of these companies can actually build a SSTO on the scale of the Mockingbird… boy howdy, the Air Force should be *desperately* interested. Sadly, so will the regulatory agencies. But private citizens building orbital vehicles they can launch from their trucks? Awesome.

UPDATE:

An article on the Mockingbird was included in US Launch Vehicle Projects #2, available HERE.

 Posted by at 6:01 am
Jul 252011
 

In 1978, Boeing cranked out a whole lot of information – reports, presentations, artwork, etc. – on the Solar power Satellite concept. The idea was that giant satellites covered on photovoltaic arrays would be built in low Earth orbit, then moved up to geosynchronous, where the power generated would be converted to microwaves, beamed to Earth, captured and  converted back into electricity. The idea was grand, it was bold, it was forward thinking and it was doomed. In the early 1980’s the price of oil collapsed from its OPEC Oil Embargo days, and the support for such vastly expensive schemes as SPS vanished.

It was not inevitable, of course. A few minor tweaks to the timeline, and the Arab oil producing states might have kept the cost high: either through simply controlling the price, or by the simple expedient of warfare blasting the crap out of the oil fields. Had oil stayed high, who knows… SPS might’ve become the growth industry of the 1990’s.

Boeing was one of the major companies looking at the SPS concept. Each SPS would be roughly the size of Manhattan, and would produce around ten gigawatts. Hundreds of launches would be required to transport the raw materials to orbital construction bases… and hundreds of workers would be needed in both low Earth orbit and geosynchronous to oversee construction.  Boeing mapped out the probable timeline of populations on-orbit. The assumption was that two SPS’s would be built per year; this constant rate of construction is reflected in fairly constant numbers for the construction bases in LEO and GEO; the constantly increasing number of satellites explains the increasing number of maintenance crew. 20 SPS’s would require 1000 crew; 40 would need 1400 and 60 would need 1800.

A whole lot of the assumptions regarding SPS seem sadly laughable from the vantage point of the post-Shuttle years. For example space transport was seen as needing to be incredibly  cheap, with blisteringly fast turnaround times and a launch of a heavy lift booster (such as the Space Freighter) every 21 hours or so, for decades on end. Even had those succeeded, the crew numbers are almost certainly far too low. Not only would construction and maintenance have turned out to be a lot harder than hoped… there would be a lot of people not considered in these simple analyses. If you have a construction base that lasts for years… you are going to have families. And people who provide goods and services not only to the crew, but to their families. And the tourists. And the scientists, engineers, bureaucrats and everything else. Without setting out to do so, the SPS concept could easily and necessarily have led to populations in Earth orbit measurable in the thousands to tens of thousands.

Had work begun on SPS in earnest in 1980, the first flights might have started in 1990 or so. By which point we’d be two decades into the project. Assuming they kept on schedule (ha!), we’d now have at least 40 SPS satellites, each providing 2.5 gigawatts of net electrical power. That’s 100 gigawatts; over a year, 876,000 gigawatt-hours. Energy usage in the US today is about 29 petawatt-hours = 29,000,000 gigawatt-hours. Thus… a whopping 3% of todays American energy needs could be filled by twenty years worth of solar power satellite construction. Meh. One could always assume that twenty years of technological advancement might’ve improved the efficiency of the solar cells and the transmission systems, bumping up the net power produced by a satellite; still, it’d take a whole lot of satellites to make a real dent in Americas energy needs.

 Posted by at 11:29 pm
Jul 062011
 

Billion-pixel camera set to snap Milky Way shots

ESA says that Gaia’s measurements will be so accurate that, if it were on Earth, it could measure the thumbnails of a person on the Moon.

  • The numbers foreseen in Gaia’s celestial census are breathtaking. Every day it will discover, on average, 10 stars possessing planets, 10 stars exploding in other galaxies, 30 ‘failed stars’ known as brown dwarfs, and numerous distant quasars, which are powered by giant black holes.
  • Estimates suggest that Gaia will detect about 15, 000 planets beyond our Solar System.
  •  Posted by at 5:33 pm
    Jun 072011
     

    U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions

    Some people often complain that I blather on about politics when I should just stick with obscure bits of aerospace. Well… how The Hell is the United States supposed to have any kind of aerospace industry, let alone colonize the universe, when we have politically driven financial disasters like this???

    Unless the US FedGuv gets spending under control – cut spending by 50%, for starters – the US is very soon going to be relegated to the “has-been” section of history.

     Posted by at 12:21 pm
    Feb 222011
     

    Our public schools are overcrowded and over-spendy. According to this, per-pupil expenditures are over $10,000 per year in more than 23 states. And as the Wisconsin protests have shown, the teachers unions are clearly overloaded (if you have the time to ditch your students and commit fraud by getting fraudulent “doctors notes,” you are excess baggage). So, how to reduce costs and the number of teachers (and associated educational support staff) without loading vast numbers of students per classroom?

    An idea I mentioned a while back: a standardized test in the 6th grade. Those who fail, or otherwise demonstrate an utter lack of interest or ability in getting an education, would be presented with the opportunity to Get A Damned Job. Let’s face it, lots of kids are wasting their time and your tax dollars screwing off in high school classrooms. So if we can take these students out of the picture and put them into some useful role in the economy, schools can get smaller (not to mention safer) and cheaper, and the economy will get a slight boost.

    Now, there is the other end. I propose that starting at the sixth grade, a GED-type test be administered not to all students, but to all students who *want* to take it. Those that pass it can graduate on the spot (or at the end of the current school year), and get assured entrance to a state college or university. In order to help them, the student would recieve a college voucher for (handwave) $4000 for every year early they leave the public school system. So  a student who graduates at the end of the sixth grade is leaving the system six years early… thus, $24,000 is made available to be spent on tuition at a state school of higher learning. For a state like Utah, this would represent something like $1000 per year of direct savings; but for a state like Vermont or Wyoming, this means more than $10,000 per year in savings. Some rational counselling system might be needed to assure that the younger graduates are actually ready for college.

    Both approaches would incentivise students to *leave* the public educational system. On one hand, students who cannot benefit from the system and are a detriment to others. On the other hand, students who have already gotten from the system whatever the system has to offer. In both cases, students would be presented with the opportunity to leave a system that’s doing them no good… and get their lives underway. And by tempting these students out, the number of students could be substantially reduced, lowering costs. By chopping off the dead weight at the bottom and skimming off the cream at the top, the schools would be largely left with the great mass of Regular Average Students. By making the student body someone more uniform, with fewer outliers, the process of educating them should be made more practical.

     Posted by at 6:12 pm
    Jan 172011
     

    I just read the short story “Philosopher’s Stone” by Christopher Anvil, in the January, 1963, issue of Analog science fiction magazine. In it is described an interesting idea on how to spur technological progress and expand economies.

    The story, in short: the main character is an interstellar data courier. While faster than light travel is in use, there is still a whole lot of relativistic time dilation, the result being that a few week ship travel time equates to a year or three back on Earth. So as the courier goes about his career, he sees technological progress and cultural changes occurring very rapidly. He is an American, but eventually bumps into one of his Soviet counterparts (remember, published in ’63), and they compare notes.

    When they started out, they (or more strictly, their employers) tended to book tavel on American or Soviet star liners… but now they are being booked on British Imperial star liners. And the culture onboard the ships is very, very old-school British, with “nobility” walking around with swagger sticks that denote their “station,” and people bowing and scraping accordingly. The American and the Soviet are confused by this, so they do the obvious thing… get themselves a boxload of booze, get ‘faced, and check the onboard computer library to find out what the hell is going on. And what’s going on is that the British Empire, once a tiny little speck, economically, is now the dominant power on Earth and growing exponentially.

    The question is, “how in the hell did *this* happen?”

    Being science fiction, the usual answer would likely be that the Brits made first contact with aliens or some such. Instead, what Anvil came up with is perhaps an ingenious solution, and purely sociological.

    1) Nobility and social rank are pushed as worthy of attainment.

    2) Rank in nobility is not passed on directly to the male heir, but is instead dropped two ranks. “The son of a duke becomes an earl.”

    3) And the way to bump your rank *up* is to “bring a useful invention to prominence.” This is not to say to *invent* something… but to be the guy who brought Invention X to the world stage and made it go. Think: “Baron Billy Mays here for Oxy Clean!

    This system means that social climbing is done by advancing the state of the art. Families that don’t do well at that fall out of the nobility; families that do well at that keep their station, or advance upwards. But one need not be an inventor… only  have the wisdom to see the value in an invention, and have the wherewithal to bring the technology not only to market, but to make it a world-beater.

    In the story, the start of Britain’s rise to dominance came with the invention of “ocean mining” (which is not described, other than to point out that Britain can now effectively mine 70% of the Earth that the other nations can’t). With “nobles” crawling all over each other to find The Next Big Thing in order to climb up the aristocratic totem pole, Britain is now far and away the world leader in innovation. The story ends with the American and the Soviet discussing how to incorporate the same basic idea into their own home societies. The Soviet’s idea is that each Party member must sponsor one good innovation every five years, or get booted from the Party; the American’s idea is to have “teams” like major league baseball teams, with the team members made up of innovation-sponsors, with pennants and awards and such awarded based on “points,” which themselves are based on numbers of useful innovations sponsored by the team members.

    Personally, I can see the British solution, as presented, proving to be very effective and the Soviet version fairly effective, but I’m kinda “meh” about the American idea. While my personal view of “nobles” is that their best social purpose is that of “gunnery target” and “guillotine fodder,” I can see how a society that takes some of the sleazier motives of humanity (social climbing) and marries that to true social progress (technological advancement) could quickly rise technologically, economically and politically.

    In the US today, our current best approximation of this is the profit motive. And while the profit motive is certainly an effective one, we also have a truckload of anti-motives, such as “progressive” taxation, massive bureaucracies, regulations out the ying-yang… and cultural indifference to innovators. If we adopted something somewhat akin to the system proposed in “Philosopher’s Stone,”  I could see the US clawing its way out of the recession ina  heartbeat. Here are a few ideas… certainly some suck, but I’d be interested in others.

    1) Once a year, a hundred (or whatever number) innovations are selected. Those who sponsored those innovations (and the sponsor could of course be the actual inventor) are granted five years free from *all* taxation.

    2) Sponsors are given land grants… say, hundreds or thousands of acres of choice property that the sponsor chooses (if the land is currently privately owned, the government can buy that land… but none of that eminant domain bullcrap). Free from property taxes or any other obligation for the rest of the sponsor’s life. The land can be sold or willed to inheiritors, but the property taxes and such kick back in after the sponsor kicks off.

    3) Sponsors get ten votes in federal elections. Vote ten times for one guy; vote for ten guys. Whatever.

    4) Sponsors get a five-year supply of all the bodyguards, doctors, lawyers and world travel they can stomach.

    5) The selected sponsors are given the sort of fame and media adoration that is currently reserved for such as the Kardashians, the Jersey Shore mutants, Paris Hilton, movie stars, rock stars, etc. Sponsors can of course opt out… but the desire for fame is a common one, and could easily be one hell of a motivator.

    My idea is to make the five years (and that time period is up for debate) following the sponsor’s selection by the Awards comittee into one long party… if the sponsor so chooses to do it that way. If the sponsor is smart, he will instead be making plans for his *next* great innovation, to keep the party going and the tax collector at bay, and to build up his land. If the party-period ends and the sponsor doesn’t have something else lined up… well, he will be inspired to get back on the job. But even if not… the prospect of making a bucket of money from a popular invention, along with scoring a primo bit of real estate and a couple of really entertaining years would be incentive enough for a whole lot of people.

     Posted by at 11:13 pm