Russia warns West: We can target your commercial satellites

Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Russian foreign ministry’s department for non-proliferation and arms control, told the United Nations that the United States and its allies were trying to use space to enforce Western dominance.

“Quasi-civilian infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike,” Vorontsov told the United Nations First Committee…

It is impossible to know how much of that is bluster and how much is legitimate threat. It is the sort of risk that the DoD has known about for decades, every few years running some program or other to develop low-cost fast-reaction satellite launch capabilities in the event that a surge in replacement satellites (communications, recon, navigation) is needed. These studies blow a bunch of money, chew up a great many man-years, then get cancelled, resulting in paper and incomplete hardware. It may soon prove that the repeated lack of followthrough over a span of decades just might have been a mistake. SpaceX could doubtless throw up a number of replacements satellites, given time… but there would still be a span of likely months with a gap in capabilities. And who knows if there are warehouses of replacement satellites ready to go in the first place.

Bonus round: an attack on space infrastructure could be legitimately seen as an act of war. Loss of space superiority would be disastrous in case a full blown war breaks out, so a strike on satellites could easily result in a full retaliation.

Neato!

Remember just a few years ago, when the worst thing we had to worry about was mean tweets? Ah, good times.