It’s hours from being final, but at the moment the experts are saying that the “Leave” vote is several points ahead and it is 75% probable that the UK will be leaving the EU.
Watching the ITV coverage of the British vote on leaving the EU is somewhat enlightening… many of the commentators, politicians, “journalists” and talking heads are reacting with the sort of shock you generally only see when the Democrats lose an important vote (like when W got his second term).
If the UK does leave, there’ll be some interesting times. For starters, the Scots will probably vote again on whether *they* want to leave the UK, since apparently the EU is popular in Scotland. It also seems like in the rest of Britain the biggest “Stay” contingent is urban London; mirroring the United States, it looks like the urban areas of Britain are out of step with the rest of the country.
Chances are good that in the near term Britain will be in for some hard times. The EU will undoubtedly punish Britain economically, if for no other reason than to show any other countries thinking about leaving that they’d better think twice. No doubt Putin will be thrilled by Brexit, as it’ll weaken European military ties; but in the long run I suspect Britain will be stronger. No longer hamstrung by EU bureaucrats, the Brits might be able to do the stuff they want to do, the way they want to do it.
And beyond all that: 2016 is just getting weirder and weirder politically. I shudder to imagine what’s coming in August.