One of the first major historical events to follow the April premiere of 2001: A Space Odyssey was, on June 5, 1968, when Palestinian Sirhan Sirhan assassinated Democrat Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy. The assassination is one of those things that could have *easily* been avoided; it was only made possible due to a late decision to take RFK out of the Abassador Hotel after giving a speech by walking through the kitchen rather than the ballroom, supposedly a shortcut. Had the decision gone the other way, RFK very likely would have walked out of the hotel without incident. While he was then behind in the polls to Hubert Humphrey for the Democrat Presidential nomination, it is very possible that events following his non-assassination would have led to his nomination.
So, it would then have been a race between RFK and Richard Nixon. In Real History, the election of 1968 was marred by riots; these likely would have still happened had RFK been the Dem nominee rather than Humphrey. It’s hard to tell how an RFK/Nixon election would have gone, but it seems reasonable to assume that it would have gone much the same as the Humphrey/Nixon election that actually happened, with Nixon winning a narrow margin in the popular vote.
But remember, this is a Kennedy vs. Nixon election. History had seen one of those before, in 1960. That was another close election, one that JFK won, in part, due to his close wins in Illinois and Texas. But then as now, it was known that the Democrat Party Machine was in full swing in Illinois, and Illinois politics is some of the most corrupt in the nation. Additionally, JFK’s VP candidate, LB Johnson, was one of the most immoral men ever to achieve high office in the US, and may well have helped fraudulently skew results in his home state of Texas. See a discussion of all this HERE. Whether or not this *actually* happened, many, including Nixon, *believed* it had happened. Importantly, it is by no means an unlikely scenario, and the Kennedys have hardly proven themselves paragons of honest and ethical politicking.
So: by November, 1968, RFK is polling slightly behind Nixon. Nixon assumes that RFK is going to cheat. Nixon was, it seems, on good terms with J. Edgar Hoover, head of the FBI. Hoover, however, was not on good terms with the Kennedy clan. There have been rumors over the years that the reason why JFK did not fire Hoover when he took office was because he knew than Hoover had the dirt on *him.* So… Nixon assumes that RFK will be involved in chicanery in the upcoming election. And Hoover assumes this as well. And so on November 5, 1968, the election is held…
To be continued