Journalismizationizing!

 blather, Forward!, Hmm..., news, politics, weapons, ಠ_ಠ  No Responses »
Feb 172014
 

First, there’s the headline:

Study: Missouri murders spike after state repeals gun background check law

Then there’s the article itself, which claims that a study reports that after Missouri repealed a law that required that private gun sales (like, say, from neighbor to neighbor) have a state background check, the state has seen an increase in murders of 60 or so per year. The implication being that now that law abiding citizens don’t have to get a background check for guns, they are being inspired to murder more often.

But then… someone at Fark.com decided to actually check the numbers.

  2014-02-17 12:26:12 PM

Magorn: Federal law would not apply to the transfers in question:
After the law was repealed, unlicensed sellers were no longer required to perform background checks before selling their guns.
I’m calling statistical shenanigans, though.
Here is the year, population, # of homicides, and rate for Missouri from 1997 to 2012 (last year I can find data for):

Year    Pop.         Hom.   Rate/100k
----    ---------    ---    ----
1997    5,481,193    387    7.06
1998    5,521,766    372    6.74
1999    5,561,950    329    5.92
2000    5,607,285    332    5.92
2001    5,641,142    399    7.07
2002    5,674,825    348    6.13
2003    5,709,403    319    5.59
2004    5,747,741    369    6.42
2005    5,790,300    417    7.20
2006    5,842,704    384    6.57
2007    5,887,612    382    6.49
2008    5,923,916    474    8.00
2009    5,961,088    402    6.74
2010    5,996,092    435    7.25
2011    6,008,984    385    6.41
2012    6,021,988    390    6.48

Data sources:
http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/SAC/crime_data_violent_crim e_ 960grid.html (homicide numbers)
http://mcdc.missouri.edu/websas/estimates_by_age.shtml (population numbers)
Rate is calculated as (homicides/population)*100,000, rounded to nearest hundredth.

There seems to have been a significant jump in homicides in 2008, just after the law changed.  That may or may not be related, but the subsequent 4 years after (2009-2012) don’t seem very different at all from 2004-2007, the years prior to when the law took effect on August 28th, 2007 (majority of 2007 was “need a permit”)

In fact, the average rate from 2004-2007 is 6.67 per 100k, and from 2009 to 2012 it’s 6.72, less than 1% higher.   I’m not even sure if that would be a statistically significant increase.

If the homicide rate had stayed up in the 8 per 100,000 range, or even consistently about 7 per 100,000, I’d say “Yeah, looks like there might be something to this, warrants further study”.  But they didn’t.  They dropped right back down to near the average, and it only took me a few minutes to figure out with publicly available data that there is something funny going on statistically.
 Posted by at 2:08 pm

US Bomber Projects #08, Large formats 01-03 and 04-06 Now Available

 aircraft, art, awesomeness, books, drawings, history, new products, news, nukes, projects, rockets, spacecraft, US Bomber Projects  No Responses »
Feb 162014
 

Now available:

Issue number 08 of US Bomber Projects is now available (for background, see HERE). This issue includes:

  • Boeing Model 464-27: a slightly-swept turboprop B-52 progenitor
  • Rockwell D645-6: A minimum-weight spanloader missile carrier
  • Martin Mach 4.25: A large, manned nuclear ramjet
  • Boeing Model 484-2-2: A swept-wing, slightly supersonic B-58 competitor
  • Douglas System 464L: A many-surfaced Dyna Soar spaceplane
  • Martin Model 223-8: a 1944 step on the road to the XB-48
  • Boeing Model 801-11A: A Mach 3.5 hydrogen fueled design of incredible range
  • Martin MAMBA: A mid-1960’s A-10-analog

USBP#08 can be downloaded as a PDF file for only $4:

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usbp08

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Brand new: larger format drawing collections

The CAD drawings created for USBP reformatted an rescaled for 11X17 collected in separate volumes. Drawings have in some cases been corrected, improved and added to.

USBP 11X17 01-03 collects the diagrams created for issues 01, 02 and 03, including:

Rockwell D 645-1; NAA 1495-25 PAMSS; Boeing Model 701-273-0; Convair B-58-C-1; Lockheed CL-2102-2; Lockheed Model 195-A-13; Martin Model 223-1; Boeing Model 444 A; Rockwell D 645-1: LH2; NAA High Performance Penetrator; Boeing Model 701-273-1; Lockheed GL-232; Boeing Space Sortie; Martin Model 223-2; Boeing Model 461; Northrop Low Altitude Penetrator; Rockwell D 645-4A; Lockheed System 464L; Convair Mach 4 “Rollover;” Boeing Model 701-273-3; Boeing HSCT Model 1080-854; Martin Model 223-3; Boeing Model 462

USBP11x17-01-03 can be downloaded as a PDF file for only $10:

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usbp11x17-01-03

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USBP 11X17 04-06 collects the diagrams created for issues 04, 05 and 06, including:

McDonnell System 464L; Lockheed-Martin Falcon; Lockheed Senior Peg; Boeing Mobile Missile Carrier; Boeing Model 701-273-4; Lockheed Cruise Missile Carrier; Boeing Model 462-5; Martin Model 223-4; McDonnell-Douglas ATB; McDonnell-Douglas/Boeing DF-9; Boeing Model 701-273-5; Fairchild N-9; Martin Model 223-5; Rockwell D645-5;North American 464L; Boeing Model 464-17; Boeing Model 464-18; Convair WS-125A; Martin MX-2092; GD AMPSS; Republic System 464L; Martin Model 223-6; Boeing Model 701-273-6; Martin Water-Based Attack Aircraft

USBP11x17-04-06 can be downloaded as a PDF file for only $10:

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usbp11x17-04-06

 Posted by at 12:25 pm

The Scale of the Prometheus

 aircraft, art, awesomeness, drawings, models, new products, science fiction  15 Responses »
Feb 152014
 

Generating 2D line drawings of the Prometheus in “flight mode” went a lot quicker since I’d learned some lessons on the “landed mode.”  Two computers took about 6 hours to generate the six new views.

There are two ways to envision the scale of the Prometheus. One way is to compare a full-scale Prometheus with several other full-scale vehicles, like so:

prometheus scale

It dwarfs real-world vehicles like the Saturn V and the 747. I wouldn’t bet against it on a collision with the Enterprise, and it’s a safe bet that the Helicarrier would fall out of the sky if the Prometheus landed on it.

UPDATE: due to a few comments expressing surprise at the size of Prometheus, I guess it’s fair to show how I didn’t just handwave the scale. Two pieces of production art have been made public that show the Magellan – as the ship was originally called – was intended to have a length of 560 feet, stated explicitly.Second, another piece of production art shows one of the landing feet with a suited astronaut for scale. After I scaled my model out to 560 feet long, I added a 5′ 10″ human scale figure next to a foot. Put side by side, the two landing-foot-scale reference illustrations look really pretty close. So… 560 feet long.This makes the ship a bit of a monster. Each engine pod is bigger than the S-IC stage of the Saturn V.

sizing 560feet

Now, consider… the Prometheus is not only a big ship, it would be *massive.* Many times more massive than the Saturn V. Unlike, say, the Galactic Republic capital ships shown in “Attack of the Clones” and “Revenge of the Sith,” Prometheus does not seem to float around on antigravity, but flies under the force of thrust and weight. So on liftoff it would have to generate many times the thrust of the Saturn V. And the Saturn V could damage structures and eardrums *miles* away. The Prometheus would need an exclusion zone with a radius of dozens of miles  (20? 30? 50?) around terrestrial landing pads. The bridge seems to be incredibly exposed… whatever that window glass is made from, it’s some tough, sound-absorbent stuff.

Here’s one of the clearest images of the Prometheus, shown with the “hangar” lowered. It’s Really Small compared to the rest of the ship… and some pretty sizable trucks were able to drive in and out with no problem. It’s a bigass ship.

prometheus-ship-1

Another way: compare the size of the forthcoming kit to several other kits, most of them also Fantastic Plastic kits. It’s in line with the other sizable kits FP has put out, though still something of a beast.

model scale

 Posted by at 7:35 pm

“Every law that was ever written opened up a new way to graft”

 blather, Forward!, I'm from the government, Obamazombies, politics, weapons, wisdom  5 Responses »
Feb 152014
 

So, in the wake of the Newtown massacre, New York state rushed to pass some feel-good, do-bad anti “assault weapon” laws aimed specifically at getting rid of the AR-15. What’s the end result? Companies making money by selling bits and pieces that will make your AR-15 law-compliant, but in no way affect the operation of the weapon.

Such as:

The AR-15 Receiver Spur

The New York State SAFE Act states that a “pistol grip that protrudes conspicuously beneath the action of the weapon” is one characteristic that defines a rifle as an assault weapon.  If this is the sole characteristic that defines your AR-15 as an assault weapon, The AR-15 Receiver Spur remedies this issue.

spur

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If you want to go a little further, Stag Arms sells a butt stock/grip replacement that keeps full functionality yet puts you in compliance:

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Or do it yourself:

[youtube 9xHsjxDqrrg]

[youtube GUich0PXxdA]

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The point: these laws accomplish *nothing* in terms of “making children safer” or any such rubbish. What they *do* do:

1) Inconvenience some gun owners

2) Persuade other gun owners, previously law abiding, to become criminals.

I think #2 there bears some thinking about. As with many drug laws, what these anti-gun laws do is convince many decent folk that breaking the law is the best option. And once you have done that… you, as a legislator who wrote and passed this law, have contributed to the breakdown of respect for the legal system as a whole.

I believe a case can be made that laws that are passed that serve no purpose but to increase lawlessness are, at their heart, treasonous laws.

 Posted by at 12:17 pm

The abortion debate is about to become more interesting

 blather, news, politics, religion, science  18 Responses »
Feb 152014
 

Being gay IS in your genes, say scientists in controversial new DNA study

Let’s say it’s true, and that there is a specific and identifiable genetic marker for homosexuality (obviously it probably won’t be responsible for *all* homosexuality, but let’s say it’s an important factor). And let’s say that a test for those genetic markers is available… for in-utero fetuses (“fetii?” Not sure of the plural on that one). So… ten minutes after you find out you’re pregnant, you find out that Junior is likely to be gay. And since abortions are supposed to be easily accessed, convenient and, if at all possible, government funded and free…

The resulting storm of convoluted arguments, from leftie pro-abortion types who are suddenly opposed to abortions, to rightie anti-abortion types who suddenly think that some abortions are just neato, would be entertaining to watch. I think much good could come from the “debate:” simply duct tape a bunch of powerful rare earth magnets to the pundits and install them within copper coils. The electricity generated by all the spin would power several large cities.

 Posted by at 10:18 am

The Dune We Didn’t Get

 awesomeness, Crazy, Gah., history, science fiction  10 Responses »
Feb 142014
 

One of the most legendary Movies That Didn’t Get Made is “Dune.” Granted, “Dune” did get made… twice. Once in 1984 by David Lynch as a theatrical flick, and again in 2000 as a made-for-Sci Fi Channel miniseries. But the first serious effort to put “Dune” on the screen was in the early/mid 1970’s by French director Alejandro Jodorowsky. A *vast* amount of work went into this effort, which eventually failed due – shockingly – to financial reasons. But had it come to pass, it would be describable by two words: In. Sane.

Consider:

The script would have worked out to a 14 hour movie

Baron Harkonnen: Orson Welles.

Emperor Shaddam IV: Salvador Fricken’ Dali

Music: Peter Gabriel and Pink Flloyd

Design work: H.R. Giger (went on to design the “Alien”) and Chriss Foss and Jean Giraud (“Moebius”)

After all the work and money, it fell through. If you read Jodorowsky’s description on the project HERE, you can kinda see why… Jodorowsky was an unfortunate combination of Self Important Dick and Crazy Artistic Lunatic, just the sort of thing that can, if all goes well, produce pure genius, but more often creates failure. Still, it’s interesting to contemplate.

A new documentary, Jodorowsky’s Dune, is about to be released. It would be interesting if a good-sized book of the art created for the movie – thousands of illustrations – would also be released. See the trailer HERE.

 Posted by at 4:20 pm
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