Nov 292017
 

Seems they’re stepping up their game:

North Korea missile launch: The most important things to know

The most recent missile reached an altitude of about 4,475 kilometers. Experts believe that this missile has the range to reach *all* of the United States. However, the warhead, which the Norks of course are claiming was super heavy, might have been light; it might have even been another stage. Still, even if they were only chucking a soccer ball at Florida, it’s an impressive achievement for a nation full of intestinal worms.

I would be utterly unsurprised if the missile is not even remotely accurate… they shoot it at Washington, D.C. and it hits Ohio. However, it would be a much less challenging mission to deposit a single warhead a few hundred kilometers above the central US in order to set off an EMP. If they were successful in pulling that off, the death toll would be horrendous. Estimates I’ve seen go up to a death toll of up to 90% of the American population due to the subsequent collapse of the power and transport infrastructure; famine would quickly follow, but not as quickly as major cities like Chicago and New York eating themselves. However, an EMP that takes outt the US civilian power grid would do close to diddly squat to the US military… so for a few days at leas thte US military would lash out and turn North Korea into ruined wasteland. it’s a safe bet that the moment the Norks launch that EMP weapons, they’ll launch an attack on South Korea. So the death toll in North Korea would be close to total; the death toll in South Korea could be millions. And the Japanese might get in on it.

And of course once the US has been shut down, it will be clear to everybody else that Team America World Cop is out of business. Russia will invade all its neighbors. China and India and Pakistan will probably go at it. The Arab world will go after Israel. The death toll could be in the billions, and civilization could come to an effective end.

With that possibility, the math on launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea starts looking better.

 Posted by at 12:45 am
  • papasmurfs

    >However, it would be a much less challenging mission to deposit a single
    warhead a few hundred kilometers above the central US in order to set
    off an EMP. If they were successful in pulling that off, the death toll
    would be horrendous. Estimates I’ve seen go up to a death toll of up to
    90% of the American population due to the subsequent collapse of the
    power and transport infrastructure; famine would quickly follow, but not
    as quickly as major cities like Chicago and New York eating themselves.

    One nuke CANNOT do all of that, that is just Tom Clancey-esque masturbatory nonsense

    >Russia will invade all its neighbors. China and India and Pakistan will probably go at it. The Arab world will go after Israel.

    And more Tom Clancey-esque masturbatory nonsense

    Also did you really unironically link to CNN, the Fake News Central Command?

    • sferrin

      “One nuke CANNOT do all of that, that is just Tom Clancey-esque masturbatory nonsense”

      Starfish Prime:

      “The Thor missile carrying the Starfish Prime warhead actually reached an apogee (maximum height) of about 1100 km (just over 680 miles), and the warhead was detonated on its downward trajectory when it had fallen to the programmed altitude of 400 kilometres (250 mi). The nuclear warhead detonated at 13 minutes and 41 seconds after liftoff of the Thor missile.[12]

      Starfish Prime caused an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which was far larger than expected, so much larger that it drove much of the instrumentation off scale, causing great difficulty in getting accurate measurements. The Starfish Prime electromagnetic pulse also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, about 1,445 kilometres (900 mi) away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link[11] (the detonation time was nine seconds after 11 p.m. in Hawaii).”

      Put an 1800 mile diameter circle over the Eastern US. Computers are far more delicate than streetlights. And the streetlights were at 900 miles. Items closer would have felt the effect more strongly. Two would cover the continental US.

      • papasmurfs
        • Scottlowther

          In and of itself, perhaps not. But as a trigger for a collapse, a well performed EMP attack could be spectacular. Look at 911: Fewer than 3000 people killed, the economy almost tanked. Imagine if power grids nation wide collapsed and stayed down for months. Post Katrina NOLA without the outside assistance.

          • publiusr

            I know what will happen…right at rain. Push comes to shove, the norks target DC,, and it will land on Alabama. I can just see it.

            I’ll be in one of those nursing homes, flesh burned off–and on the late night telly–once power is restored, the comedy shows….

            “No great loss…”

    • TheRequimen

      The only thing keeping globalism as we know it ticking is the US Navy. Any major disaster in CONUS will almost certainly cause said navy to pick up our people overseas as quickly as possible and come home. SSBN deployments would probably remain, just in case Russia thinks it might be able to get away with a first strike to put us down permanently.

      Without the US Navy patrolling the Seven Seas, things will decline, rapidly. Here are some fun examples:
      Saudi Arabia and Iran will go at it. Every drop of crude or liquid NG will stop flowing out of the Persian Gulf. For Europe, that means they have to rely solely on Russia for oil, or watch their economies collapse. Ditto most of Asia.

      For what oil does flow out from Saudi Arabia, from the Red Sea, will be mighty expensive. Who can afford it? China and Japan of course! How long will India sit by and watch lifeblood of the modern economy sail by before resorting to piracy? My guess is not long.

      Piracy. Expect it to come back, and on a nation state scale. Want to pass by India? Pay the price. Straits of Malacca? Pay the price, to potentially three separate nations. Or two. Or one. Dog eat dog world. Sail through the Suez, pay a big price, or sail around Africa, paying many small ones and trying to dodge legit pirates?

      China will invade Taiwan. China will likely end up at war with Japan, perhaps South Korea over the finite amounts of oil left on the market. China will have to deploy its navy to do something other than pleasure cruises to major cities around the world, harassing fishing boats, and sitting pretty in port.

      ——-

      Russia. Oh boy. This is their dream come true. Because everyday today is a waking nightmare. Horrible demographics. Rapidly declining population in an era of rapidly growing ones. Fractured, multicultural society. Muslims. Worlds largest country bordering the worlds most populous countries, all of them hungry for natural resources. A non diverse, dated economy. Only things they export are raw materials and weapons.

      This is their time. Without the US in this world, they can, at best, slow their decline and eventual fall, for decades.

      Borders. Russia needs to condense her European borders to something manageable. Defendable. The Baltic States have to go. Ukraine needs to, “come home”. They need to go further, they need rivers, mountains. Natural borders. The Vistula is nice. Kaliningrad down to the Vistula, to the Carpathian Mountains, along those to the Black Sea in Romania. Done. They can even rebuild a Warsaw Pact esque alliance with the people they have conquered to be the punching bags in case Europe decides it would rather take what it needs than buy it.

      I can keep going. Nearly every nation in the world has some score to settle, some way to get ahead of the pack. Unless you think with the US gone the world can finally sing kumbaya around the campfire, and finally get along.

      TLDR, no one can replace the US Navy. Without our dominance of the Oceans, the global order will fracture, and we go back to the geopolitical thinking and mercantilism of something akin to the 17th-18th century. Difference being the world would be dropped into that rather than being worked up to it.

  • Peter Hanely

    Whatever we do with North Korea, we need to account for China.

  • Michael

    If NK were in the Middle East, they’d never get to this point. The Israelis would have blasted their rocket sites and their nuclear plants long ago. Americans are too nice to do any harm without first getting permission from the media.

    • Paul451

      There are two issues that have prevent US freedom of action, compared with other threats: 1) SK will be eviscerated by NK’s response to any US attack. Even nuking NK wouldn’t stop the major population centres of SK from being destroyed. And 2) NK has a mutual defence treaty with China. An attack on NK is an act of war against China. So unless the Administration of the day decided to wage all-out war against China, NK was largely untouchable unless they hit first.